Cavendish Update 5/1/20 Plant Sale/Market Update/News
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The quarantine—surprisingly—was making Duncan calmer. Jane Hart
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5/1/20
1. What’s Been Happening
2. CHS Plant Sale
3. Market Update by Mark Huntley
4. Events
We’re staying home today for our mask makers.
It’s been a hopeful week all things considered, with Vermont keeping the number of new cases low, even had no new cases on Wednesday, more businesses re opening, with a promise of more today, and some strides are being made on the treatment front.
Town Data: On Monday, the VT Department of Health (VDH) released data by town for the first time. Instead of providing actual numbers, they gave a range. Cavendish, Ludlow and surrounding towns, which comprise the Okemo Valley, each showed they had <6 cases a piece. Given that there were two deaths to Covid-19, with numerous people in quarantine as a result of being in contact with one or both of these individuals, as well as the very limited amount of testing that was available at the time, we can assume the actual number of Covid cases was/is higher for the Okemo Valley. The state admits this was an “ad hoc” attempt to answer repeated questions about specific town incidence and are in the process of over hauling it.
Criteria for lifting “Stay at Home” : VT’s Health Commissioner, Dr. Mark Levine, stated that there are four criteria being used to “open the state:”
• A sustained reduction in cases over 14 days.
• Health care system remains safely under capacity.
• Widespread testing is possible.
• Active monitoring of the population
We are achieving the first criteria and consequently hospitalizations have significantly dropped to the point that the state is reviewing plans to allow hospitals to start providing non emergent care, such as elective surgeries.
VT is ramping up its testing in order to test 1,000 people a day-7,000 a week-with strong contact tracing. They will need to hire more staff and will be expanding both in the coming weeks as more people return to work. Hopefully, both will be well in place when the “Stay at Home” order is slated to end on May 15.
Expect to see increases in new cases with more testing. Containment, which will include the use of an App to help insure people are being followed daily by VDH, will be implemented. South Korea adopted this approach immediately and as a result, kept their economy going, sluggish though it may be, and their incidence and mortality has been low. For more on this topic, click here.
There is confusion about "flattening the curve." There are those that think we “dodged a bullet,” similarly to how we missed getting hit by a nor’easter. Nope, viruses have a mind of their own and they don’t care jack about who you are. If they can latch hold, they do. The virus was in our community, but thanks to quick action by leadership and Vermonters, who really get “hunkering down,” it was contained and as a result, we’ve been less impacted then other parts of the country.
Some people believe that since VT is doing so well, and the hospitals are sufficiently equipped with PPE and vents, just open everything up. Not so fast.
If we return to “business as usual,” we will see a significant increase in cases and once again have the potential to overwhelm the health care system. With healthcare accounting for about 20% of the US economy, caring or prepping for Covid-19 has resulted in massive revenue losses. The bread and butter stuff, which is where healthcare makes its money e.g. hip replacement, elective surgeries etc., hasn't been functioning for close to two months. Estimates are health care revenue has been reduced about $500 billion across the country. The two federal stimulus bills will only provide about $175 billion -- or 35 percent -- of that lost revenue.
As much as we need to flatten the curve to save lives, it’s also needed for researchers to develop treatments and/or vaccine, as well as allow the healthcare industry to return to business as usual so they can try and recoup massive revenue losses If we don't keep doing what we’re doing, an already fragile healthcare system could be pushed over the edge.
Will there be a “round two?” Most epidemiologist think there will be. However, by implementing the type of testing, contact tracing and quarantine, along with the continuing practice of social distancing, we could significantly reduce its impact in VT.
What about “herd immunity?: This implies that a sufficient number of people have had a disease or been vaccinated against it so the virus can’t spread. Unfortunately, scientists don’t know if humans develop immunity to COVID-19, and if it does, how long it might last. According to Uncle Tony (Dr. Fauci), “We really can’t depend on herd immunity until we get either enough people infected, or enough people vaccinated.” Getting infected is not recommended as it could easily backfire landing you in the hospital or worse.
Scott has mentioned more than once the pressure he is receiving to reopen VT. However, he is being guided by the science and data and a concern about VT’s proximity to New York and Massachusetts, which are still hot spots. It’s not clear how the latter will be addressed because Vermont’s economy is heavily based on tourism
This week brought some welcome news on the treatment front-Remdesivir has been found to have an impact on Covid by reducing the length of recovery time for from 15 to 11 days. Not to be a Debbie Downer, but this is not an approved antiviral drug, so it’s got a ways to go before it becomes mainstream. Fortunately, DHMC is one of the hospitals participating in the Remdesivir Trials.
It’s Friday, so “spigot turning” day. The Governor’s press conference at 11 will announce what will be opening up. Have a good weekend and see ya Monday.
If you can’t find masks or hand sanitizer or need help with shopping, please call 226-7291 or 7292. You can also e-mail cavendishconnects@gmail.com
1. WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING
• Vail Resorts offers passholders impacted by COVID-19 credits for 2020: Vail Resorts is offering credits at between 20% and 80% for next year's Epic Pass, to anyone who held a pass this past season, along with free pass insurance that covers a pandemic.
• COVID-19, a Hypnopotamus, and You: Local hypnotherapist Dr. Linda Thomson and illustrator Jane Hart team up on this new story book, to teach children about COVID 19 and how to stay safe. There are two versions, one showing the words on the page and the other just illustrations
• Bottom falls out of Vermont’s education fund, massive tax increases loom
• VSCS Chancellor and Castleton University president resign: After a five-year tenure, Jeb Spaulding stepped down from his role as Chancellor of the Vermont State Colleges System on Wednesday. Castleton University president Dr. Karen Scolforo also resigned during Wednesday's board meeting.
• Killarney’s will be open today from 4-8 for take-out only. They recommend ordering ahead. You can order on Facebook or calling (802)228-7797.
• State emergency plan would expand broadband to all Vermonters: The Vermont Department of Public Service is crafting an emergency Covid-19 broadband plan that, if enacted, would provide internet connection to all Vermont residents at a cost ranging from $85 million to $293 million.
2. CHS ANNUAL PLANT SALE: Because Vermont’s Farmer’s Markets are opening on May 1, and garden centers are already open, the Cavendish Historical Society (CHS) is hoping to hold the plant sale May 23 (Saturday) using Farmer Market guidelines, in front of the Museum. The Museum will not be open that day.
We are taking orders now for tomato plants, salad buckets and herb pots. If you have ideas for other veggies you'd like in a grow pot, let us know and we'll see what we can work out. Tomatoes are $10 (Early girl, Cherry, and Sun Gold) and come in five gallon food grade buckets. Salad buckets and herb pots (include a variety of herbs) are $15 a piece. These can last you the whole summer and well into the fall.
To order, please e-mail margocaulfield@icloud.com with the type and quantity of tomato plants you want as well as other items. If you are in the Okemo Valley, we will be doing deliveries prior to the sale. You can also call 802-226-7807.
We understand that some people are in high risk groups and are reluctant to leave home but still want to work in their garden. If you are in that situation and want plants other than those described above, please let us know what you are looking for and we will try to deliver.
3. MARKET UPDATE by Mark Huntley: We are here to offer a quick update regarding the stock market, investments and the economy.
So, did you open your retirement plan statement? Or did you gingerly put it back in the drawer?
The Dow’s worst bear market was from 1929 to 1932 where it lost 86% of its value during that bear market (better known as the Great Depression). This 2020 market plunged over 30%, although it has somewhat repaired itself in almost the same amount of time it took to bring it down. A similar thing happened in the 2008 correction, except it took considerably longer to get back to its high. The Dow’s low in 2008/2009 was March 3rd of 2009, at which time, it was 6625. Today the Dow is close to 24,000.
Please consider that many believe (ourselves included) the S&P 500 is a fairer representation of our economy. The Dow is only 30 companies vs. 500 in the S&P
Our feeling is the potential “lows” of March may be retested in late June—this could be because of a reappearance of covid or earnings or any number of reasons. We would draw an analogy that the market might follow the virus’s path. Our recommendation is always the same: patience, balance, diversification to avoid duplication, a healthy cash position, and market hedges to protect the downside.
So, will it be (as the saying goes) “Sell in May and go away?” We shall see…
As always, please do not attempt to fly this plane, ride this roller coaster, or drive this cruise ship without the help and guidance of a highly trained professional.
May you all be safe.
Mark is a Cavendish resident and owns Huntley Wealth Management in Ludlow.
4. UPCOMING EVENTS: Go to dgBody Works for classes that are being posted via Facebook live. Take a new one, do an old one. Stay fit and healthy.
MAY 1 (FRIDAY) : Farmer’s Markets open for the season
MAY 11 (MONDAY): Ludlow Community Blood Drive 12:30-5:30 at the Ludlow Community Center, 37 Main St. Wear a facemask and use hand sanitizer. For an appointment, go to redcrossblood.org or call 1-800-733-2767
Staying home for Patty; Bob Kirkbride; Singletons; Dave Norton; Deb Hryckiewicz; Ludlow Ambulance Service; the Cavendish Water/Waste Water Treatment Team; Rocky and the Cavendish Transfer Station Crew; Cavendish Town Crew; Mt. Ascutney Hospital; Cavendish/Proctorsville firefighters & first responders; Mack Molding employees; Shaw’s Ludlow employees; the healthcare workers who have died of Covid-19; Black River Good Neighbors; family and friends we have lost to Covid-19; and our local mask makers.
Have a Heart -stay home or 6 feet apart wearing a cloth mask or scarf.
Stay healthy to protect yourself and Cavendish.
